AUDUSD – Aussie Dollar Faces Uphill Task Vs US Dollar
Aayush Jindal
Key Highlights
The Aussie Dollar after a major decline towards 0.7320 against the US Dollar found support and started a recovery.
The AUDUSD pair is heading towards an important bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7470 on the 4-hours chart.
The Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales for April 2017 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted a rise of 0.3%, which was less than the last 1.9%.
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings were released today, which failed to lift AUDUSD.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis
This past week we saw a slide in the Aussie Dollar towards 0.7320 against the US Dollar where it found support. The AUDUSD pair is currently recovering, but facing a monster resistance near 0.7470-80.As it can be seen in the 4-hours chart, the pair recovered well from the 0.7328 swing low. It broke the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7556 high to 0.7328 low.However, the pair is approaching a crucial resistance at 0.7470-80. It is a confluence area of the 100 simple moving average and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7556 high to 0.7328 low.Moreover, there is a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7470. So, a break above the highlighted confluence resistance won’t be easy. If buyers succeed, the pair might gain momentum towards 0.7550.
Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales
Today in Australia, the New Motor Vehicle Sales report for April 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The forecast was lined up for an increase of around 1% in sales in April 2017, compared with the previous month.The result was on the lower side, as there was an increase of only 0.3% in Sales in April 2017. In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 0.1%, better than the last -3%. Overall, the Aussie dollar has no major reason at the moment to climb further in the near term.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
France Consumer Price Index for April 2017 (MoM) - Forecast +0.1%, versus +0.7% previous.
France Consumer Price Index for April 2017 (YoY) - Forecast +1.4%, versus +1.4% previous.
Italian Gross Domestic Product for Q1 2017 (QoQ) (Preliminary) - Forecast +0.2%, versus +0.2% previous.
UK Retail Price Index April 2017 (YoY) – Forecast +3.5%, versus +3.1% previous.
UK Producer Price Index April 2017 (YoY) – Forecast +3.4%, versus +3.6% previous.
UK Consumer Price Index April 2017 (YoY) – Forecast +2.6%, versus +2.3% previous.
UK Core Consumer Price Index April 2017 (YoY) – Forecast +2.2%, versus +1.8% previous.
German ZEW Business Economic Sentiment Index for May 2017 – Forecast 22, versus 19.5 previous.
Euro Zone Gross Domestic Product Q1 2017 (Preliminary) (QoQ) - Forecast 0.5%, versus 0.5% previous.
US Housing Starts April 2017 (MoM) – Forecast 1.260M, versus 1.215M previous.
US Building Permits April 2017 (MoM) – Forecast 1.27M, versus 1.26M previous.
As it can be seen in the 4-hours chart, the pair recovered well from the 0.7328 swing low. It broke the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7556 high to 0.7328 low.However, the pair is approaching a crucial resistance at 0.7470-80. It is a confluence area of the 100 simple moving average and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.7556 high to 0.7328 low.Moreover, there is a major bearish trend line with resistance at 0.7470. So, a break above the highlighted confluence resistance won’t be easy. If buyers succeed, the pair might gain momentum towards 0.7550.
The result was on the lower side, as there was an increase of only 0.3% in Sales in April 2017. In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 0.1%, better than the last -3%. Overall, the Aussie dollar has no major reason at the moment to climb further in the near term.