AUDUSD – Aussie Dollar In Medium Term Downtrend Vs USD?
Aayush Jindal
Key Highlights
The Aussie dollar struggled on many occasions to break 0.7740-0.7750 against the US Dollar.
It looks like a major double top pattern near 0.7740 on the daily chart of AUDUSD, igniting a downside move.
In Australia, the Employment Change figure for March 2017 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted 60.9K, compared with the forecast of 20.0K.
The Unemployment Rate came in at 5.9% in March 2017, just as the market expected.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis
The Aussie dollar had a bad past few days, as it moved down by around 200 pips against the US Dollar from the 0.7748 high. Going forward, more losses are possible in AUDUSD if the pair remains below 0.7550.One important point is that the pair is likely forming a major double top pattern near 0.7740 on the daily chart. The pair already moved down and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7159 low to 0.7748 high.Moreover, the pair also attempted a close below the 100-day simple moving average at 0.7550. So, the pair may later make an attempt to settle below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7159 low to 0.7748 high. On the downside, the next important support is at 0.7400.On the upside, the broken trend line support at 0.7600 might act as a resistance, followed by 0.7620.
Australian Employment Change
Today in Australia, the Employment Change figure for March 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was aligned for the change to be 20.0K in March 2017, compared with the last -6.4K.The real outcome was above the forecast, as the change was 60.9K, and the Unemployment Rate came in at 5.9% in March 2017. The report stated that “Employment increased 60,900 to 12,059,600. Full-time employment increased 74,500 to 8,238,600 and part-time employment decreased 13,600 to 3,821,000”.Overall, the result was positive, and currently helping AUDUSD for an upside move towards 0.7600.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
German Consumer Price Index for March 2017 (YoY) – Forecast +1.6%, versus +1.6% previous.
German Consumer Price Index for March 2017 (MoM) – Forecast +0.2%, versus +0.2% previous.
US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 245K, versus 234K previous.
US Producer Price Index March 2017 (MoM) – Forecast 0%, versus +0.3% previous.
One important point is that the pair is likely forming a major double top pattern near 0.7740 on the daily chart. The pair already moved down and broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7159 low to 0.7748 high.Moreover, the pair also attempted a close below the 100-day simple moving average at 0.7550. So, the pair may later make an attempt to settle below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7159 low to 0.7748 high. On the downside, the next important support is at 0.7400.On the upside, the broken trend line support at 0.7600 might act as a resistance, followed by 0.7620.
Overall, the result was positive, and currently helping AUDUSD for an upside move towards 0.7600.