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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • The Euro is gaining bullish momentum above 1.1250 against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break above a major channel resistance at 1.1185 to open the doors for upsides above 1.1250-60 in EUR/USD.
  • May’s 2017 NFP figure posted an increase of 138K, which was a lot less than the forecast of 185K.
  • Today, the Euro Zone Services PMI for May 2017 will be released with forecast as 56.2, same as the previous 56.2.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

The Euro broke above 1.1250-60 resistance against the US Dollar post disappointing NFP repot in the US. The EUR/USD pair now looks set for further upsides towards 1.1320.EURUSD Technical Analysis Euro US DollarLooking at the 4-hours chart, there was a break above a major channel resistance at 1.1185. It cleared the way for further gains above 1.1200. After the US NFP release, the pair broke the 1.1250 resistance to close the week above 1.1260.On the upside, the next important resistance is near the 1.236 Fibonacci extension level of the last decline from the 1.1268 high to 1.1109 low.On the downside, supports are near 1.1250, 1.1220 and 1.1200. Should there be a correction in EUR/USD, buyers are likely to protect losses below 1.1200.

US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment

This past week on Friday, the US saw May’s 2017 release of the nonfarm payroll by the US Department of Labor. The market was expecting 185K, less than the previous 211K.US nonfarm payrolls May 2017The actual result was even lower, as the US NFP came in at 138K for May 2017. The previous reading was also revised down from 211K to 174K.The US Unemployment Rate in May 2017 was forecasted to remain stable at 4.4%, but there was a decline to 4.3%. A few important points from the report to note:
  • The labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 62.7 percent in May but has shown no clear trend over the past 12 months.
  • In May, 1.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by 238,000 from a year earlier.
  • The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in May.
The US Dollar faced selling pressure after the release, and EUR/USD gained pace above 1.1250.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • Germany’s Services PMI for May 2017 - Forecast 55.2, versus 55.2 previous.
  • Euro Zone Services PMI for May 2017 – Forecast 56.2, versus 56.2 previous.
  • US Services PMI for May 2017– Forecast 54.1, versus 54.0 previous.
  • France Services PMI May 2017 – Forecast 58, versus 58 previous.
  • Spanish Services PMI for May 2017 – Forecast 57.5, versus 57.8 previous.
  • UK Services PMI for May 2017 – Forecast 55.0, versus 55.8 previous.
  • US Factory Orders April 2017 (MoM) - Forecast -0.2%, versus +0.2% previous.
Great
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