GBPUSD – Can British Pound Retest 1.2600 Vs US Dollar?
Aayush Jindal
Key Highlights
The British Pound traded with positive bias during the past few days and moved above 1.2400 against the US Dollar.
The GBPUSD pair also broke a bearish trend line with resistance at 124.00 on the daily chart.
The pair may now head towards another bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2580-1.2600 on the same chart.
The UK Retail Sales figure for Feb 2017 will be released by the National Statistics today, which is forecasted to post an increase of 2.6% (YoY).
GBPUSD Technical Analysis
The British Pound continuing rejection near 1.2100 against the US Dollar ignited a rally. The GBPUSD is now trading with positive bias, and looks poised for gains towards 1.2600.Initially, the pair cleared the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2706 high to 1.2106 low. It ignited further gains, and the pair broke a bearish trend line with resistance at 124.00 on the daily chart.It also moved above the 100-day simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2706 high to 1.2106 low. These are positive signs, suggesting more gains above 1.2550 in the near term.The next major hurdle for the pair is near another bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2580-1.2600 on the same chart. The daily RSI for GBPUSD is now around 55, which is a positive sign.
UK Retail Sales
Today in the UK, the Retail Sales figure for Feb 2017 will be released by the National Statistics. The market is aligned for the total receipts of retail stores to increase by 2.6% in Feb 2017, compared with the same month a year ago.Moreover, the monthly change is forecasted to increase by 0.4% in Feb 2017, which is far better than the last decrease of 0.3%. So, clearly the market is positioned for a better retail sales figure for Feb 2017, and if the increase is more than 2.5% (YoY), the GBPUSD pair might get a reason to trade further higher.
Other Economic Releases to Watch Today
US New Home Sales for Feb 2017 – Forecast +0.3% (MoM) versus +3.7% previous.
US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 240K, versus 241K previous.
Euro Zone Consumer Confidence March 2017 (Preliminary) - Forecast -5.8, versus -6.2 previous.
Initially, the pair cleared the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2706 high to 1.2106 low. It ignited further gains, and the pair broke a bearish trend line with resistance at 124.00 on the daily chart.It also moved above the 100-day simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.2706 high to 1.2106 low. These are positive signs, suggesting more gains above 1.2550 in the near term.The next major hurdle for the pair is near another bearish trend line with resistance at 1.2580-1.2600 on the same chart. The daily RSI for GBPUSD is now around 55, which is a positive sign.