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USD/JPY Remains At Risk of Further Declines

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • The US Dollar failed to surpass the 108.50resistance against the Japanese Yen.
  • A crucial bearish trend line is forming with resistancenear 108.40 on the 4-hours chart.
  • The Euro Area Retail Sales declined 0.3% in May2019 (MoM), whereas the forecast was +0.3%.
  • The US nonfarm payrolls in June 2019 could change160K, more than the last 75K.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

After trading as low as 106.77, the US Dollar started a decent upward move against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair traded above the 108.00 resistance, but it struggled to clear the 108.50 resistance area.

USDJPY Technical Analysis US Dollar Japanese Yen

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair gained bullishmomentum above the 107.80 and 108.00 resistance levels. It even broke the108.20 resistance plus the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).

However, the 108.50 level acted as a strong resistance andthe pair remained well below the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).More importantly, USD/JPY failed to clear a crucial bearish trend line withcurrent resistance near 108.40 on the same chart.

Recently, the pair corrected lower below 108.00 and the 100simple moving average (red, 4-hours). It tested the 50% Fib retracement levelof the upward move from the 106.77 low to 108.51 high.

The main support on the downside is near the 107.60 and107.50 levels. If there is a downside break below the 107.50 support, the paircould revisit the 107.00 support area.

An intermediate support is 107.18, coinciding with the 76.4%Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 106.77 low to 108.51 high.

Looking at EUR/USD and GBP/USD, both pairs struggled to hold key supports and declined below 1.1320 and 1.2620 respectively. Today’s NFP release in the US could change the market sentiment and likely to impact USD/JPY as well in the near term.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • US nonfarm payrolls June 2019 – Forecast 160K,versus 75K previous.
  • US Unemployment Rate June 2019 - Forecast 3.6%,versus 3.6% previous.
  • Canada’s employment Change payrolls June 2019 –Forecast 10K, versus 27.7K previous.
  • Canada’s Unemployment Rate June 2019 - Forecast 5.5%,versus 5.4% previous.
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