AUD/USD – Downside Break Noted in Aussie to US Dollar
Aayush Jindal
Key Highlights
The Aussie Dollar struggled to hold gains above 0.7515-00 against the US Dollar and moved down.
The AUD/USD pair broke a crucial bullish trend line at 0.7470 on the 4-hours chart, signaling a downside break.
Today in Australia, the Building Permits figure for April 2017 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted an increase of 4.4%.
Today, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure will be reported for April 2017, and forecasted to increase by 0.1% (MoM).
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie Dollar was in a nice uptrend until it faced resistances above 0.75000 against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair started a downside move, and broke a major support at 0.7480-70.Looking at the 4-hours chart, there are a couple of important breaks visible around 0.7480. First, the pair broke the 100 simple moving average at 0.7475. Second, there was a below a crucial bullish trend line at 0.7470.The pair also moved below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7328 low to 0.7517 high. All these are bearish signs, and suggests more declines below 0.7460.Soon, the pair may break the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7328 low to 0.7517 high at 0.7422. Once there is a close below 0.7420-00, the pair could trade towards 0.7350.
Australia’s Building Permits
Today in Australia, the Building Permits figure for April 2017 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was expecting an increase of 3% in permits in April 2017, compared with the previous month.However, the actual result was better, as the Building Permits in April 2017 rose 4.4%. The report added that:
The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 7.2% in April following a fall of 15.4% in the previous month. The value of residential building rose 8.2% following a fall of 22.3% in the previous month. The value of non-residential building rose 5.5% following a fall of 1.3% in the previous month.
Overall, the AUD/USD is struggling to hold 0.7420-00, and may decline further in the near term.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
France Consumer Spending for April 2017 (MoM) - Forecast +0.9%, versus -0.4% previous.
France Consumer Confidence for May 2017 - Forecast 101, versus 100 previous.
Euro Zone Consumer Confidence May 2017 – Forecast -3.3, versus -3.3 previous.
Euro Zone Services Sentiment May 2017 – Forecast 14.2, versus 14.2 previous.
Euro Zone Industrial Confidence May 2017 – Forecast 3.1, versus 2.6 previous
Euro Zone Economic Sentiment Indicator May 2017 – Forecast 110, versus 109.6 previous.
German Consumer Price Index for May 2017 (YoY) – Forecast +1.7%, versus +2% previous.
German Consumer Price Index for May 2017 (MoM) – Forecast -0.1%, versus 0% previous.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for March 2017 (YoY) - Forecast +5.7%, versus +5.9% previous.
US Personal Income for April 2017 (MoM) - Forecast +0.4%, versus +0.2% previous.
US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure for April 2017 (MoM) - Forecast +0.1%, versus -0.1% previous.
Looking at the 4-hours chart, there are a couple of important breaks visible around 0.7480. First, the pair broke the 100 simple moving average at 0.7475. Second, there was a below a crucial bullish trend line at 0.7470.The pair also moved below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7328 low to 0.7517 high. All these are bearish signs, and suggests more declines below 0.7460.Soon, the pair may break the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last wave from the 0.7328 low to 0.7517 high at 0.7422. Once there is a close below 0.7420-00, the pair could trade towards 0.7350.
However, the actual result was better, as the Building Permits in April 2017 rose 4.4%. The report added that: