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AUD/USD Could Slide Further Unless It Reclaims 0.7600

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • AUD/USD is struggling to recover above 0.7550 and 0.7600.
  • A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 0.7570 on the 4-hours chart.
  • EUR/USD could extend losses below 1.1880, GBP/USD traded below the 1.3880 support.
  • The US ADP Employment could change 600K in June, down from the last 978K.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Recently, the Aussie Dollar started an upside correction from the 0.7477 low against the US Dollar. AUD/USD recovered above 0.7550, but it struggled to continue higher.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair was even able to climb above the 0.7580 resistance. There was a break above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7775 swing high to 0.7477 low.

However, the pair failed to remain stable above 0.7600. It is also well below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

There was no test of the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7775 swing high to 0.7477 low. It seems like the pair is facing a tough resistance near the 0.7600 and 0.7620 levels.

A successful close above 0.7620 and the 100 SMA could start a steady increase. If not, there is a risk of more losses below the 0.7500. The next key support is near 0.7480, below which the pair could revisit the 0.7400 zone.

Similarly, EUR/USD is showing bearish signs and it could even decline below the 1.1850 support zone. Besides, GBP/USD is also declining and it is trading well below 1.3900.

Economic Releases

  • UK GDP for Q1 2021 (QoQ) - Forecast -1.5%, versus -1.5% previous.
  • Germany’s Unemployment Change for June 2021 - Forecast -20K, versus -15K previous.
  • Germany’s Unemployment Rate for June 2021 – Forecast 5.9%, versus 6% previous.
  • Euro Zone CPI for June 2021 (YoY, Preliminary) - Forecast +1.9%, versus +2.0% previous.
  • Euro Zone Core CPI for June 2021 (YoY, Preliminary) - Forecast +0.9%, versus +1.0% previous.
  • US ADP Employment Change for June 2021 - Forecast 600K, versus 978K previous.
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