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Crude Oil Price Hits $50, EUR/USD Extends Gains

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • Crude oil price traded above the $50.00 mark for the first time since February 2020.
  • Major supports are forming near $48.00 on the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD.
  • EUR/USD extended its rise, and traded to a new multi-month high above 1.2300.
  • The US ISM Services PMI is likely to decline from 55.9 to 54.5 in Dec 2020.

Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

After forming a support base near $47.00, crude oil price started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The price gained pace above the $48.00 and $48.50 levels to move further into a positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hours chart of XTI/USD, the price broke the main $49.50 resistance level, and settled nicely above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

Finally, the price broke the $50.00 barrier and traded to a new multi-month high at $50.97. Any more upsides above the $51.00 and $51.20 levels could open the doors for a rise towards the $51.80 and $52.50 levels.

Conversely, the price is likely to find a strong support near $49.50 and $49.20. The next major support is near the $48.80 level. Any more losses could lead the price towards the $47.00 zone and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours).

Fundamentally, the US ADP Employment Change for Dec 2020 was released yesterday by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc. The market was looking for an increase of 88K.

The actual result was well below the market forecast, as the US ADP Employment decreased by 123,000 from November to December, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Commenting on the same, the vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, Ahu Yildirmaz, stated:

As the impact of the pandemic on the labor market intensifies, December posted the first decline since April 2020. The job losses were primarily concentrated in retail and leisure and hospitality.

Overall, the US Dollar remained in a bearish zone, helping EUR/USD in trading above the 1.2300 resistance zone. The pair even broke 1.2320 and traded to a new multi-month high above 1.2340.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

  • Euro Zone CPI for Dec 2020 (YoY) (Prelim) - Forecast -0.2%, versus -0.3% previous.
  • Euro Zone Core CPI for Dec 2020 (YoY) (Prelim) - Forecast +0.2%, versus +0.2% previous.
  • US ISM Services PMI for Dec 2020 – Forecast 54.5, versus 55.9 previous.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 833K, versus 787K previous.
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