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EUR/USD Could Decline Heavily If It Breaks 1.1150

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • EUR/USD faced hurdles near 1.1350 and declined below 1.1250.
  • A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 1.1280 on the 4-hours chart.
  • GBP/USD seems to be struggling near the 1.2500 resistance zone.
  • The Euro Zone Consumer Confidence is likely to remain flat at -14.7 in June 2020.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the Euro made an attempt to surpass the 1.1350 resistance against the US Dollar, but it failed. EUR/USD declined below 1.1250 and it is currently showing bearish signs.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair traded as high as 1.1348 before diving below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours). There was a break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1168 low to 1.1348 high.

It seems like there is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1280. To move into a positive zone, the pair must break the trend line and settle above the 100 SMA.

Conversely, there is a risk of more losses below the 1.1160 and 1.1150 support levels. The next crucial support is near the 1.1125 level and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). It is close to the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 1.1168 low to 1.1348 high.

If the pair breaks the 1.1150 support and gains bearish momentum below 1.1125, it could decline heavily in the coming sessions.

Overall, EUR/USD remains at a risk of more losses if it breaks 1.1150 and 1.1125. If not, it could recover nicely and start a fresh increase above 1.1130. Looking at GBP/USD, the pair is facing a strong resistance near the 1.2500 level.

Upcoming Economic Releases

  • Euro Zone Consumer Confidence June 2020 – Forecast -14.7, versus -14.7 previous.
  • German Consumer Price Index June 2020 (YoY) (Prelim) – Forecast +0.6%, versus +0.6% previous.
  • German Consumer Price Index June 2020 (MoM) (Prelim) – Forecast +0.3%, versus -0.1% previous.
  • US Pending Home Sales May 2020 (YoY) - Forecast -44.6%, versus -33.8% previous.
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