GBPUSD – 1.24000 Holds Key For Pound To Dollar With NFP Ahead
Aayush Jindal
Key Highlights
The British Pound failure to remain above 1.2600 against the US Dollar ignited a downside move.
There is an important bullish trend line with support at 1.2420 formed on the 4-hour chart of GBPUSD.
Today, the US nonfarm payrolls for March 2017 will be released by the US Department of Labor, which is forecasted to post an increase of 180K.
Today, the Average Weekly Hours is forecasted to remain steady at 34.4 in March 2017.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis
The British Pound struggled to close above 1.2600 (daily close) against the US Dollar. The GBPUSD pair traded lower, found support at 1.2400 and currently attempting a bounce back.During the recent downside, the pair broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2109 low to 1.2615 high. However, the downside move found support an important bullish trend line at 1.2420 formed on the 4-hour chart.The same support zone also represents the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2109 low to 1.2615 high. Furthermore, the 100 and 200 simple moving average (4H) is also near 1.2400-1.2420. Clearly, as long as the pair is above 1.2400, it may bounce back in the near term.
US Nonfarm Payrolls
Today in the US, the nonfarm payrolls for March 2017 will be released by the US Department of Labor. The market is expecting the number of new jobs created in all non-agricultural business to register 180K, compared with the previous 235K.The US unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.7%, and similarly, the Average Weekly Hours is forecasted to remain at 34.4 in March 2017. If the US NFP figure fails to meet the forecast, it could help GBPUSD in moving towards 1.2550.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
German Industrial Production for Feb 2017 (MoM) – Forecast -0.2% versus 2.8% previous.
Swiss Unemployment Rate for March 2017 - Forecast 3.3% versus 3.3% previous.
German Trade Balance for Feb 2017 - Forecast €18.4B versus €18.5B previous.
UK Good Trade Balance for Feb 2017 - Forecast £-10.700B versus £-10.833B previous.
UK Manufacturing Production for Feb 2017 (MoM) - Forecast 0.3% versus -0.9% previous.
UK Industrial Production for Feb 2017 (MoM) - Forecast 0.3% versus -0.4% previous.
UK Halifax House Price Index for March 2017 (MoM) - Forecast 0.3% versus 0.1% previous.
During the recent downside, the pair broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2109 low to 1.2615 high. However, the downside move found support an important bullish trend line at 1.2420 formed on the 4-hour chart.The same support zone also represents the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2109 low to 1.2615 high. Furthermore, the 100 and 200 simple moving average (4H) is also near 1.2400-1.2420. Clearly, as long as the pair is above 1.2400, it may bounce back in the near term.