Nick Goold
Gold
Gold prices experienced significant pressure last week, hitting their lowest point since March. Factors contributing to this decline include rising yields, a robust dollar, and the prospect of increased interest rates. The precious metal's price decreased daily throughout the week, with selling intensifying when prices plummeted below $1,900. The recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields to a 16-year peak further decreases the appeal of holding gold by raising its opportunity cost.
The market's anticipation of a tighter monetary policy heightened concerns over inflation, subsequently exerting additional downward pressure on gold prices. Notably, earlier this year, central bank purchases of gold reached a first-quarter record and set an annual record last year. Moreover, Chinese buyers, driven by a depreciating yuan, lower government bond yields, and an economic deceleration, have shown increased interest in acquiring the precious metal, underscoring its attractiveness in uncertain times.
Despite the recent downward trend, gold prices now appear quite oversold when observed on a daily chart, indicating the potential for a short-term bounce as the new week commences. Should prices rebound, the previous support level at $1,885 could offer a lucrative opportunity for selling, aligning with the prevailing downtrend.
Resistance: 1884, 1893, 1900, 1925, 1946
Support: 1836, 1809, 1800
WTI
Crude oil witnessed a volatile week, with prices soaring to a new one-year high of $95 mid-week. The increase earlier in the week was notable, but the momentum couldn't be sustained due to broader economic concerns impacting the oil market.
A significant event on the horizon for the oil sector is the OPEC+ ministerial panel meeting scheduled for October 4th. Market whispers suggest that Saudi Arabia's state oil producer might likely consider scaling back its voluntary supply cuts. This anticipated move could have substantial implications for oil prices in the near future.
After a robust 30% ascent in the third quarter, analysts predict a deceleration in the upward trajectory, especially as prices approach the significant resistance level of $100. For the coming week, crude oil is susceptible to more declines. If prices breach the 10-day moving average, it might spark additional profit-taking sales. Short-term traders could find selling opportunities, but should prices retract to around $85, it could present an attractive entry point for medium-term buyers.
Resistance: 94.00, 100.00
Support: 89.00, 85.00, 83.50, 78.50, 75.00, 70.00
