Aayush Jindal
Key Highlights
- Gold price failed to hold a major support near $1,285 and declined against the US Dollar.
- There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $1,296 on the 4-hours chart of XAU/USD.
- The US Housing Starts in May 2018 increased 5%, more than the forecast of +1.4%.
- Today, the US Existing Home Sales figure for May 2018 will be released, which is forecasted to grow by 1.5% (MoM).
Gold Price Technical Analysis
After trading above the $1,300 level, gold price failed to hold gains against the US Dollar. The price started a downside move and broke a few major supports including $1,295.
A high was formed at $1,309 before the price started a bearish wave. It declined below $1,300 and closed below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). During the decline, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at $1,296 on the 4-hours chart of XAU/USD.More importantly, the price broke two key supports at $1,290 and $1,285, opening the doors for more losses. The price traded close to the $1,270 level and is currently consolidating losses.On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1,309 high to $1,270 low. However, the most important hurdle is near $1,285, which was a support earlier and now coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $1,309 high to $1,270 low.Therefore, if the price corrects higher, it is likely to face sellers near $1,285. On the downside, supports are seen near $1,270 and $1,266.Recently, the US saw the release of the Housing Starts report for May 2018 by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce. The market was looking for a rise of 1.4% compared with the previous decline of 3.7%.However, the result was positive as there was a rise of 5% in the Housing Starts. The last reading was also revised down to -3.1%. The report added:Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 936,000; this is 3.9 percent (±10.6 percent)* above the revised April figure of 901,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 404,000.Overall, the US Dollar may continue to gain momentum. EUR/USD recently dipped and traded towards 1.1550, and GBP/USD also fell sharply below the 1.3200 support.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
- US Current Account Q1 2018 - Forecast $-129.0B, versus $-128.2B previous.
- US Existing Home Sales for May 2018 (MoM) - Forecast +1.5%, versus -2.5% previous.
