NZDUSD Dives As RBNZ Inflation Expectation Misses Forecast
Aayush Jindal
Key Highlights
New Zealand dollar traded lower against the US dollar and tested the 0.7460 support area.
Earlier today, the Inflation Expectations was released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand which came in at 1.8%, down from the last reading of 2.1%.
Fed’s Yellen is scheduled to testify today, which might cause a lot of volatility in the US dollar.
NZDUSD has a critical support around 0.7450 and resistance at 0.7500.
RBNZ Inflation ExpectationsToday during the Asian session, as the New Zealand Inflation Expectations was released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The outcome was not as the forex market expected, as it registered an increase of 1.8% in the first quarter of 2015, compared to the last gain of 2.1%.The report added that the respondents’ two-year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 2.06% to 1.80%, which is 0.26% lower. Moreover, the two-year series mean for June 2014 was 2.36%. One notable point was the fact that the data indicate real production-based GDP jumped by 3.2%in September 2014, compared to the same month a year ago. Finally, in terms of the quarter change a growth of 0.8% is expected for the December 2014 quarter, and for March 2015 0.7%.Technical AnalysisThe New Zealand dollar was not impressed at all with the current release and it was seen trading lower against the US dollar. The NZDUSD pair traded below the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7410 low to 0.7573 high. Moreover, the pair also cleared the 200 hour simple moving average, which is a bearish sign for the pair. On the downside, an immediate support can be seen around the 76.4% fib level, followed by the last swing low of 0.7410.If the NZDUSD pair manages to correct higher from the current levels, then it might find resistance around the 200 hour MA. There is a monster bearish trend line formed as well, which is coinciding with the 100 hour MA. So, one might say that there is a major resistance around the 0.7510 level.US Consumer ConfidenceLater today during the NY session, the US Consumer Confidence will be released by the Conference Board. The forecast is slated for a decline from 102.9 to 99.6 in January 2015 in February 02015. Moreover, the fed chairwoman is also scheduled to testify. So, a lot of volatility is possible moving ahead.
The report added that the respondents’ two-year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 2.06% to 1.80%, which is 0.26% lower. Moreover, the two-year series mean for June 2014 was 2.36%. One notable point was the fact that the data indicate real production-based GDP jumped by 3.2%in September 2014, compared to the same month a year ago. Finally, in terms of the quarter change a growth of 0.8% is expected for the December 2014 quarter, and for March 2015 0.7%.Technical AnalysisThe New Zealand dollar was not impressed at all with the current release and it was seen trading lower against the US dollar. The NZDUSD pair traded below the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7410 low to 0.7573 high. Moreover, the pair also cleared the 200 hour simple moving average, which is a bearish sign for the pair. On the downside, an immediate support can be seen around the 76.4% fib level, followed by the last swing low of 0.7410.
If the NZDUSD pair manages to correct higher from the current levels, then it might find resistance around the 200 hour MA. There is a monster bearish trend line formed as well, which is coinciding with the 100 hour MA. So, one might say that there is a major resistance around the 0.7510 level.US Consumer ConfidenceLater today during the NY session, the US Consumer Confidence will be released by the Conference Board. The forecast is slated for a decline from 102.9 to 99.6 in January 2015 in February 02015. Moreover, the fed chairwoman is also scheduled to testify. So, a lot of volatility is possible moving ahead.
The report added that the respondents’ two-year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 2.06% to 1.80%, which is 0.26% lower. Moreover, the two-year series mean for June 2014 was 2.36%. One notable point was the fact that the data indicate real production-based GDP jumped by 3.2%in September 2014, compared to the same month a year ago. Finally, in terms of the quarter change a growth of 0.8% is expected for the December 2014 quarter, and for March 2015 0.7%.Technical AnalysisThe New Zealand dollar was not impressed at all with the current release and it was seen trading lower against the US dollar. The NZDUSD pair traded below the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7410 low to 0.7573 high. Moreover, the pair also cleared the 200 hour simple moving average, which is a bearish sign for the pair. On the downside, an immediate support can be seen around the 76.4% fib level, followed by the last swing low of 0.7410.
If the NZDUSD pair manages to correct higher from the current levels, then it might find resistance around the 200 hour MA. There is a monster bearish trend line formed as well, which is coinciding with the 100 hour MA. So, one might say that there is a major resistance around the 0.7510 level.US Consumer ConfidenceLater today during the NY session, the US Consumer Confidence will be released by the Conference Board. The forecast is slated for a decline from 102.9 to 99.6 in January 2015 in February 02015. Moreover, the fed chairwoman is also scheduled to testify. So, a lot of volatility is possible moving ahead.