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USDCAD – US Dollar Awaits NFP Report For Break Vs CAD

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • The US Dollar is on a winning streak against the Canadian dollar, and may continue to move higher.
  • There is a contracting triangle pattern formed on the 4-hours chart of the USDCAD pair, which may provide us the next break.
  • Today, the all-important US nonfarm payrolls report will be released by the US Department of Labor.
  • The forecast is slated for an increase of 172K in Sep 2016, more than the last rise of 151K.

USDCAD Technical Analysis

The US Dollar was a better performer so far this week versus the Canadian dollar. Since, the US NFP and the unemployment report will be published today, it would be interesting to see how USDCAD trades.USDCAD Technical AnalysisThe pair is currently forming a contracting triangle pattern formed on the 4-hours chart, which may act as a major catalyst for the next move in the short term.The H4 RSI is well above the 50 level, which is a positive sign, and may lift the USDCAD pair further. If you are looking to trade, then I think you should wait for a break and a proper close either above or below the highlighted triangle.

US Nonfarm Payrolls

Today, the most important release of this week is lined up, as the US nonfarm payrolls report will be published by the US Department of Labor. The market is expecting an increase of 172K in Sep 2016, more than the last rise of 151K.The US unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 4.9% in Sep 2016, and the Average Hourly Earnings may rise by 0.3%. Overall, the market is expecting good numbers, and if the result is positive, the US Dollar may gain heavy bids in the short term.

Canadian Unemployment Report and Employment Change

The Canadian employment change, which is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Canada is also lined up later today by the Statistics Canada. The market is expecting a change of 10K in Sep 2016, compared with the last reading of 26.2K.The Canadian unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 7% in Sep 2016. So, it’s like double risk event for the USDCAD pair. Both the releases may impact the US Dollar and Canadian dollar to a great extent. So, one must trade carefully later today.
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