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USD/JPY Remains At Risk of More Downsides

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Aayush Jindal

Key Highlights

  • USD/JPY started a fresh decline from well above 110.50.
  • A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 110.20 on the 4-hours chart.
  • The US GDP increased 6.1% in Q2 2021 (Prelim), up from the last 4.3%.
  • The US Personal Income is likely to decline 0.3% in June 2021 (MoM).

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar struggled to continue higher above 111.00 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY started a fresh decline from the 110.59 swing high and declined below 110.00.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair even broke the 109.80 support zone. It settled below the 109.80 pivot level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).

There was a clear break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 109.06 swing low to 110.59 high. The pair is now consolidating near the 109.50 support.

It is testing the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 109.06 swing low to 110.59 high. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 110.20 on the same chart.

On the upside, the previous support at 109.80 and 110.00 could stop upsides. A close above the trend line resistance and the 200 SMA might start a decent increase towards 111.00 in the near term.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 109.40 level. The first key support is near the 109.10 level. Any more downsides could set the pace for a larger decline below 109.00. The next major supports sits near 108.40.

Looking at EUR/USD, the pair recovered above the 1.1850 resistance zone. Besides, GBP/USD is gaining pace above 1.3950.

Economic Releases

  • Euro Zone CPI for July 2021 (YoY) (Prelim) - Forecast +2.0%, versus +1.9% previous.
  • Euro Zone Core CPI for July 2021 (YoY) (Prelim) - Forecast +0.8%, versus +0.9% previous.
  • Euro Zone Gross Domestic Product for Q2 2021 (Prelim) (QoQ) - Forecast 1.5%, versus -0.3% previous.
  • US Personal Income for June 2021 (MoM) - Forecast -0.3%, versus -2.0% previous.
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